Ocean governance needs to be adaptive to social-ecological changes. However, the complexity of existing institutional and property rights arrangements makes this challenging. Different types of rules, norms and property types (i.e., private, common, state) governed by a multitude of intertwined formal and informal regimes are often interacting in ways that can be either complementary or lead to conflict. These complex ocean governance seascapes are therefore difficult to understand through a single theoretical lens or framework. This panel brings together research which explores adaptive ocean governance processes from different methodological perspectives. We particularly invite contributions from scholars who investigate how these intertwined ocean governance arrangements, or actors embedded in them, adapt and respond in the face of change and uncertainty. In doing so, this panel aims to foster dialogue regarding, on the one hand, different processes of governance change happening in the marine realm around the world, and on the other hand, on different methodological approaches to investigate those processes of adaptive governance.
Sechura Bay, Peru is a highly productive marine resource system, but rapid institutional changes and increasing climate impacts make the future uncertain for local livelihoods dependent on the bay. In the last two decades following the introduction of high-value scallop mariculture for export to international markets, the previous largely informal and open-access system in the bay has transformed towards formalization. What has emerged is a complex arrangement of formal institutional structures dominated by large processing firms and private property regimes, yet still characterized by many informal arrangements and activities, and simultaneously facing a high degree of uncertainty from warming ocean temperatures, harmful algal blooms, and other climate impacts. In this study, we apply participatory modeling, specifically fuzzy cognitive mapping, through a series of iterative workshop activities to model this complex social-ecological system from the perspective of local people. These people are embedded in various marine resource subsectors which are often competing, conflicting, coexisting, and codependent on each other. We synthesize and reflect on benefits and limitations of participatory modeling for (1) navigating conflict and consensus-making in marine resource governance, by exploring similarities and differences between mental models, social group identity, and normative values, and for (2) navigating uncertainty in marine resource governance, by using mental models and “what-if?” simulations to inform discussion and deliberation with local people regarding viable policy and adaptation strategies under potential future governance and environmental actors scenarios.
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