Brias, Antoine

Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathway (DAPP) maps are employed to plan management decisions in contexts where the future of critical assets and infrastructures is highly uncertain due to environmental changes. Recent discussions highlight the necessity of utilizing them for managing complex common-pool resource issues, shaped by the intricate interconnections among diverse species, ecosystem services, and stakeholders. However, these social-ecological systems (SES) present challenges due to the vast array of potential adaptation options available.

This study introduces a method for effectively constructing DAPP maps by integrating Ostrom’s governance frameworks: the Institutional Analysis & Development framework (IADF), the Social-Ecological Systems framework (SESF), and the Coupled Infrastructure Systems framework (CISF). We leveraged them to create and organize adaptation actions, their targets, and the roles of actors and infrastructures that trigger these actions within various nested governance arrangements, e.g. operational, collective-choice, constitutional, etc ... This integrated approach enhanced our capacity to derive DAPP maps based on the mathematical principles of complex dynamical systems and viable control theory.

We apply this method to explore nested adaptive governance pathways for managing species-rich hedgerow networks that provide diverse ecosystem services. Our focus is on two SES with distinct community needs: one rural and one peri-urban, both located in France's Auvergne region. In the face of climate change affecting hedgerow species, we identify a set of viable adaptation pathways across nine alternative nested governance arrangements. Indicators are developed to highlight key factors driving differences in DAPP maps in response to changes in climate and SES context.

From this application, we discuss the strengths and limitations of this approach for managing increasingly complex SES and semi-natural infrastructures, considering the challenges posed by greater diversity in species, stakeholders, and ecosystem services. Additionally, we discuss how this complexity may impact usability and testability in practical applications.