Nepal's community forestry (CF) is an institutional exemplar of tenure rights devolution. Central to CF are the Community Forest User Groups (CFUGs), which are expected to manage common-pool forest resources by balancing conservation with community needs. Previous research has sought to understand CFUG performance through the lens of Ostrom's Design Principles. Building on this, we incorporate insights from Public Choice theory and recognize the central role of CFUG leadership. CFUG leaders are supposed to be democratically elected volunteers. However, this ideal may be undermined due to a lack of volunteers in smaller and resource-poor CFUGs or by competition and maneuvering for positions in resource-rich areas. We explore the heterogeneity of CFUG leadership by investigating the preferences of CFUG leaders for timber harvesting, rule enforcement, forest management, and decision-making accountability to uncover a typology of CFUG leadership. We relate the typology to the characteristics of the leader (e.g., gender, leadership position in CFUG) and the CFUG (e.g., forest area and regeneration, engagement status, and incidence of forest fires). Latent class analysis through generalized structural equation modeling (GSEM) of data from 144 CFUG leaders in Kavrepalanchowk and Kaski districts reveals two leadership types. One aligns with Ostrom's principles, favoring inclusivity, responsiveness to local conditions, and conservation. The other reflects Public Choice Theory, driven by economic gains and political ambitions, with a preference for resource optimization. The findings underscore the importance of adaptive governance models that account for the diverse leadership preferences identified in CFUGs. They should be considered when developing interventions, ensuring that strategies align with the actual preferences and values of local leaders to foster a future for CF that reconciles conservation with economic incentives. Future research should investigate the interplay between leader preferences, local governance, and external influences to promote long-term sustainability and economic vitality.
