Reygadas, Yunuen

Although legally protected since 1990, Guatemala's Maya Biosphere Reserve (MBR) has experienced an accelerated rate of land-use and land-cover (LULC) change. This illegal LULC change is particularly concerning because the MBR is part of the largest tropical rainforest in the Americas after the Amazon and is home to an estimated 35,000 Indigenous and non-Indigenous people. Previous research suggests that deforestation patterns in the MBR are geographically uneven and reflect differences in conservation governance. There are three main conservation models in the MBR, with respective regulations on land tenure, land use, and extractive activities. These include a “nuclear zone” of national parks and biotopes with “fortress conservation” restrictions, a “multiple use zone” (MUZ) where MBR residents and neighbors organized into community forestry concessions sustainably extract resources, and a “buffer zone” with few conservation restrictions. This paper combines longitudinal analysis of LULC change (2000 – 2023) in the MBR with a comparative analysis of conservation governance to explore the relationship between conservation models and LULC change outcomes. We estimate LULC changes in the last two decades using a novel Multivariate Random Forest LULC detection algorithm (MuRaF-LULC). To understand temporal and spatial patterns of conservation efforts, we draw upon policy analysis, in-depth interviews, and over 15 years of qualitative research. Our findings illustrate that deforestation rates are lower in community managed forest concessions in the “multiple use zone” than in the western national parks where conservation and land use policies are the strictest. Furthermore, deforestation in the national parks is largely driven by illegal, narco-capitalized cattle ranching activities. Our research confirms that communally managed community forests in the MBR are more effective in achieving conservation goals than fortress conservation approaches. Furthermore, community-based resource management and forest governance more effectively deters land grabs by organized crime than state-led governance in national parks.