Shackelford, Scott

The U.S., China, Russia and their partners are racing to establish permanent habitats on the Moon. History demonstrates that initial institutional arrangements are long-lasting and determine the future trajectory and success of a colony. How should the initial governance system of the U.S.’ lunar habitat be designed in order to support its long-term success and mutually beneficial and long-lasting relations with its mother country/Earth? We use extensive literature on initial colonial policies and institutions in different colonies and their effects on the long-term economic and political development as well as how and why they pursued independence. The goals of this paper are threefold: (i) present the different models previously employed to settle and govern colonies; (ii) explore the advantages and disadvantages of each model for the long-term economic development of a lunar habitat; and (iii) identify the factors that triggered economic and political clashes between colonies and their mother countries and discuss which are more likely to arise in the case of a lunar habitat as well as possible institutional arrangements to prevent or handle them. Specifically, we argue that a significant degree of self-governance would better support long-term economic development. Therefore, it is crucial that after the initial settlement is accomplished, private companies and individuals are allowed to enter and gradually take over as many activities as possible. Settlers should eventually start forming their own dispute resolution mechanisms and some political body to determine collective action/decisions. If defense is a serious concern, the habitat will probably require assistance from its mother country and clear mechanisms should be established for this purpose, including regarding who bears the cost of defending the habitat. As the population and economy of habitat grows, eventually it should obtain representation in the political affairs of the mother country; in other words, the habitat should be politically incorporated. To avoid the emergence of an independence movement, the rules for such incorporation should be settled in advance.