Continuing a current line of research on philanthropic giving as a type of common-pool resource (Bushouse, Christensen, and Never, forthcoming), this paper will examine (a) the prospective impacts on the so-called “demographic cliff” on giving to higher education institutions in the US and (b) how those institutions might try to mitigate or offset the impacts. In previous work (Blomquist and Shaker, forthcoming) we have focused on the “provision side” challenges of the philanthropic commons using the terminology introduced by Gardner, Ostrom, and Walker (1990). As in our previous work, we propose here that attention to the provision side of a commons dilemma helps to illuminate the nature of the problem and identify how it could be addressed. In this paper we extend that provision-side focus to the challenges presented by declining enrollments and thus a diminishing stream of future alumni. We combine the most recent data on enrollment trends (National Student Clearinghouse Research Center 2024) with the most recent data on philanthropic giving to higher education in the US (TIAA Institute 2024) for a joint assessment of both trends. Our previous work did not incorporate the enrollment dimension of the current US higher education landscape, which is a vital consideration. Additionally, we will review how giving trends and enrollment trends vary across institutional type (e.g. public and private institutions, 2-year and 4-year institutions), which sheds additional light on the future challenges and opportunities for meeting them.
