While the multifaceted functions of paddy fields distributed in the Asian region are gaining importance, paddy field agriculture in Japan is being diversified with the introduction of crop rotation policies by the national and local governments against the backdrop of declining rice demand and market fluctuations. This study aimed to identify external and internal factors influencing paddy field conversion using a hierarchical linear model in order to identify the requirements for building an agent-based land use model that represents community responses to paddy field conversion measures.
In this study, a survey of farmers' preferences for multiple scenarios was conducted in a region that has begun promoting rice conversion from staple rice, to identify factors that would influence farmers' behavior if the paddy rice conversion policy were changed. The study area was selected by organizing the paddy crop rotation policies of each municipality in Tochigi Prefecture. In Tochigi Prefecture, 60% of the rice produced in the prefecture is sold for commercial use, which has been affected by the decrease in demand, and while the planted area of rice for animal feed has increased and is the largest in Japan, the planted area of high-yielding rice varieties is only 2%. The farmers are also engaged in long-term conversion to wheat, soybeans, and open-field vegetables, which is considered suitable for the target site because of the multiple scenarios that can be considered. The results of the questionnaire survey were used to construct scenarios based on the factors that determine farmers' behavior, and a conjoint analysis was conducted to analyze the impact of the shifting cropping policy on paddy field use.
